If you were told at the Christmas Eve lows for stocks that equities would have a monster move into 2019, and that we would go through the longest government shut down in history, what would you say?
Recent history is a great reminder that future always seems to make less sense in outcome than in a story. Future is always full of surprises, and no amount of intelligence/data can ever fully prepare you for the unknown. Asset classes once thought dead, live again. Bull markets once thought over, resume. Strategies once thought broken, come right back. We can never know the exact reason why except with hindsight, making those surprises seem like they never were. The reality is that big money tends to be made betting on areas no one else thinks can surprise.
Nothing like a huge rally in a month’s time to make everyone stop talking about a recession
Remember that December collapse? Felt like so long ago given just how violent the upswing has been since. The end of 2018 was dominated by prognosticators saying a recession was imminent, or already underway. Strangely enough, no one seems to be saying any of that now.
What changed? One thing and one thing only: price. At the end of the day, remember that price dictates emotions, emotions dictate narrative, narrative results in poor decision making.
Recent history is a great reminder that future always seems to make less sense in outcome than in a story. Future is always full of surprises, and no amount of intelligence/data can ever fully prepare you for the unknown. Asset classes once thought dead, live again. Bull markets once thought over, resume. Strategies once thought broken, come right back. We can never know the exact reason why except with hindsight, making those surprises seem like they never were. The reality is that big money tends to be made betting on areas no one else thinks can surprise.
Nothing like a huge rally in a month’s time to make everyone stop talking about a recession
Remember that December collapse? Felt like so long ago given just how violent the upswing has been since. The end of 2018 was dominated by prognosticators saying a recession was imminent, or already underway. Strangely enough, no one seems to be saying any of that now.
What changed? One thing and one thing only: price. At the end of the day, remember that price dictates emotions, emotions dictate narrative, narrative results in poor decision making.
Comments
Post a Comment